Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.097861 0.112079 0.127536 0.145577 0.166041 0.188520 0.215072
2026-02-01 0.072851 0.090543 0.111292 0.137374 0.169239 0.206853 0.254575
2026-02-08 0.056675 0.075996 0.100301 0.133016 0.175783 0.229673 0.302600
2026-02-15 0.044316 0.063912 0.090268 0.128120 0.180869 0.251529 0.353081
2026-02-22 0.037135 0.057378 0.086380 0.130643 0.196117 0.288941 0.429963
2026-03-01 0.029594 0.048912 0.078344 0.125990 0.200630 0.312359 0.491326
2026-03-08 0.024015 0.042345 0.071962 0.122676 0.206560 0.338718 0.561184
2026-03-15 0.019649 0.036875 0.066324 0.119529 0.212200 0.365443 0.635751
2026-03-22 0.017133 0.034086 0.064632 0.122638 0.228609 0.411822 0.749141
2026-03-29 0.014542 0.030633 0.061154 0.121984 0.238368 0.448394 0.851313
2026-04-05 0.012681 0.028207 0.059127 0.123640 0.252550 0.494722 0.977510
2026-04-12 0.011174 0.026189 0.057524 0.125820 0.268047 0.545602 1.119365
2026-04-19 0.009185 0.022769 0.052567 0.120605 0.268636 0.569356 1.215188
2026-04-26 0.007428 0.019475 0.047248 0.113649 0.264498 0.583282 1.293996
2026-05-03 0.006207 0.017175 0.043690 0.109934 0.266738 0.610728 1.405191
2026-05-10 0.005173 0.015095 0.040232 0.105796 0.267334 0.634823 1.513096
2026-05-17 0.004621 0.014163 0.039394 0.107852 0.282798 0.694144 1.708187
2026-05-24 0.003883 0.012524 0.036417 0.103945 0.283138 0.719017 1.828233
2026-05-31 0.003310 0.011217 0.034047 0.101162 0.285827 0.749855 1.967107
2026-06-07 0.002832 0.010075 0.031889 0.098526 0.288441 0.780917 2.111235
2026-06-14 0.002584 0.009608 0.031588 0.101097 0.305558 0.850925 2.363260
2026-06-21 0.002279 0.008868 0.030306 0.100542 0.313893 0.899488 2.567041
2026-06-28 0.002061 0.008374 0.029692 0.101909 0.328040 0.965650 2.827142